Quick Commerce to Hit $5.38 Bn In India, Profit Play Shifts: Report
Share
Shop Culture, a global brand strategy and e-commerce services firm, has released insights from its latest intelligence report, “The Commerce Reckoning: 2025 Global Intelligence Report,” revealing that many brands continue to rely on outdated e-commerce growth strategies that are no longer sustainable in today’s highly competitive and cost-intensive landscape.
Based on observations across 20+ markets, the report highlights that while global e-commerce continues to expand, profitability is increasingly being eroded by rising advertising costs, inefficient operating models, compliance gaps, and poor market entry sequencing.
According to the report, global e-commerce is projected to surpass $6.86 trillion in 2025, with 2.77 billion consumers expected to make at least one online purchase. However, despite this scale, the average e-commerce ROAS has declined to 2.87:1, underscoring growing pressure on brands to convert growth into sustainable margins. Shop Culture attributes this decline to businesses continuing to operate with a 2022-style “growth-at-all-costs” playbook in a far more complex and expensive 2025 environment.
The report identifies three major structural shifts redefining commerce in 2025. First, retail media costs have increased significantly, with Amazon reporting average CPC rising 15.5% year-on-year to $1.12. Second, while 77% of e-commerce professionals now use AI daily, many brands are failing to realise meaningful gains as AI is amplifying weak systems rather than correcting them. Third, geographic diversification has evolved into a margin strategy, with the share of Shop Culture clients operating in two or more geographies rising from 30% in 2024 to 65% in 2025.
Commenting on the findings, Subarna Mukherjee, Founder & CEO, Shop Culture, said: “The e-commerce industry has a nostalgia problem. In 2022, the playbook was simple: list aggressively, spend on ads, and ride the wave of post-pandemic digital adoption. It worked. Revenue grew rapidly. But by 2025, the industry is seeing the consequences of those structural shortcuts. E-commerce itself is not slowing down the challenge lies in how brands are operating within it.”
A key section of the report focuses on India’s quick commerce ecosystem, which Shop Culture identifies as one of the most significant structural shifts in modern retail. The report estimates that India’s quick commerce market will reach $5.38 billion in 2025, growing at 17%, making it the fastest-growing globally. Beyond convenience, quick commerce is emerging as a strategic margin buffer for brands navigating rising marketplace costs.
The report cites multiple case observations: in one instance, quick commerce contributed 70% of a packaged food brand’s online revenue and delivered 130% year-on-year growth post-launch. In another, a beauty brand recorded 25% higher average selling prices on quick commerce platforms compared to traditional marketplaces.
The report also underscores the importance of disciplined international expansion. It notes that brands often prioritise entering the largest markets first, whereas stronger outcomes are achieved through strategic sequencing based on TACOS efficiency, regulatory readiness, and competitive intensity. Shop Culture highlights that markets such as Germany and the UK can serve as more effective entry points than the United States, alongside emerging opportunities across newer commerce geographies.
On the regulatory front, the report emphasises that compliance has become a direct revenue driver, particularly across Europe. Brands entering EU markets with pre-built regulatory frameworks can go live within 8–12 weeks, while those treating compliance as an afterthought may spend six months or more resolving listing suppressions and documentation challenges.
The report further analyses the role of AI in commerce operations. Across 1,500+ AI-optimised listings within Shop Culture’s portfolio, AI integration delivered 10–15% improvement in conversion rates, 7–10% reduction in TACOS, and a 20% reduction in stockouts through enhanced forecasting and automation. However, these outcomes are only achievable when AI is layered onto strong operational and commercial foundations.
Adding to this, Mukherjee said:
“AI is not a growth strategy, it is an amplifier. It enhances strong systems and exposes weak ones.”
The report outlines a clear direction for brands entering 2026: profitable growth will depend less on aggressive expansion and more on building strong margin architecture, diversifying channels, ensuring compliance readiness, integrating AI effectively, and sequencing geographic expansion strategically.
It also identifies new geographies such as US, UK and EU and even emerging ones such as South Africa, Brazil, along with Tier 2 and Tier 3 quick commerce markets in India as key growth frontiers likely to shape the next phase of global commerce.
In 2025, Shop Culture managed over $200 million in GMV globally, operating across 20+ countries and marketplaces, and supporting brands across 10 major consumer categories, including beauty, health, grocery, electronics, fashion, and automotive.
